Stock: UAL- United Airlines (Market Price: $53.50)
Volatility @ Sell: 49.83%
Volatility @ Buy: 42.00%
Volatility Contraction or "Crush": 7.83%
Expected Move: Midpoint of Bid-Ask Spread of Selling ATM Call: $.93 Midpoint of Bid-Ask Spread of Selling ATM Put: $1.40 Sum: $.93+$1.40= $2.33= Expected Move of stock's price
1. Sold call @ ATM Strike of $53.50 for premium of $.93 (To break even, the stock must not cross $53.50 + $.93. To profit, the stock must be below the break even price)
2. Sold put @ ATM Strike of $53.50 for premium of $1.40 (To break even, the stock must not go below $53.50-$1.40. To profit, the stock must be above the break even price)
3. Combined Both transactions were sold at ATM (at-the-money, or equal to current market price) strike prices. The premiums sold were the midpoints of the respective option's bid-ask spread. In order to profit, with the combined transaction, the stock's price must be above below the #1's break even price and above #2's break even price. This means I must be within +$.93 or -$1.40 of the ATM strike/current price. The total range of movement allotted for me to profit is $2.33.
As stated above, and not coincidentally, the expected move of a stock is determined by the sum of the midpoints between the bid-ask spread (mid-price fills) for selling ATM calls and put, or $2.33. The sum of the premiums (the midpoints) is the expected move and the range that I want to be in in order to profit!
Eighteen-year old trader, future connoisseur of options.
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